Analysis and modelling Lymantria dispar L. metapopulation dynamics

Sustainable forest management could take advantage from knowing the ecological
mechanisms underlying provisioning and regulating ecosystem services. The gypsy moth, Lymantria
dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), is one of the main oak forest defoliators in the Holarctic
Region, and its outbreaks may disrupt ecosystem mechanisms at the basis of forest productivity and
regulation. Most of the analysis and modelling approaches on gypsy moth population dynamics have
been applied to a continuous spatial dimension. These approaches do not account for the possible role
of highly fragmented forest stands on pest dynamics. The objective of this contribution is to analyse
the influence of the fragmented landscape structure in Sardinian forest areas on gypsy moth spatiotemporal
dynamics. The performed analysis is based on: a) the evaluation of spatial synchrony of
population dynamics to account for connectiveness among local populations in single patches, b) the
parameterization of spatially explicit metapopulation models to describe the forest pest
metapopulation dynamics. The estimated metapopulation models display interesting properties that
could be useful in defining the specific metapopulation dynamics pattern at forest district level. The
proposed approach could be further developed and applied to the evaluation of management strategies
of the forest pest.