Time-resolved systems immunology reveals a late juncture linked to fatal COVID-19

COVID-19 exhibits extensive patient-to-patient heterogeneity. To link immune response variation to disease severity and outcome over time, we longitudinally assessed circulating proteins as well as 188 surface protein markers, transcriptome, and T cell receptor sequence simultaneously in single peripheral immune cells from COVID-19 patients. Conditional-independence network analysis revealed primary correlates of disease severity, including gene expression signatures of apoptosis in plasmacytoid dendritic cells and attenuated inflammation but increased fatty acid metabolism in CD56dimCD16hi NK cells linked positively to circulating interleukin (IL)-15. CD8+ T cell activation was apparent without signs of exhaustion. Although cellular inflammation was depressed in severe patients early after hospitalization, it became elevated by days 17–23 post symptom onset, suggestive of a late wave of inflammatory responses. Furthermore, circulating protein trajectories at this time were divergent between and predictive of recovery versus fatal outcomes. Our findings stress the importance of timing in the analysis, clinical monitoring, and therapeutic intervention of COVID-19.A quantitative disease severity metric is developed by integrating clinical data and circulating cytokines to capture finer shades of disease severity. Multimodal single-cell profiling and immune cell analyses of COVID-19 patients over time reveal a late wave of diverging inflammatory and host immune responses that predicts recovery versus fatality.