Quantifying the climate crisis: a data-driven framework using response indicators for evidence-based adaptation policies

The concept of ‘climate crisis’ has a long history and has been
increasingly employed by media and politics in recent decades,
shaping collective perceptions of climate variability and change.
However, in the absence of a critical definition, it risks fostering
unrealistic interpretations – either alarmist or overly optimistic. To
promote a rational understanding of ‘climate crisis’ we propose a
framework of Response Indicators (RINDs) based on the IPCC AR6
Climate Impact Drivers (CIDs).
The Mann-Kendall trend test applied to RIND time series reveals
that most indicators do not exhibit statistically significant worsening
trends. This challenges crisis narratives in specific contexts and
highlights the need for localised, data-driven adaptation strategies
rather than generalised alarm. We advocate annual updates of
indicators to create an evolving ‘crisis index,’ mirroring the shift in
economics from qualitative crisis definitions (e.g. recessions as
‘two consecutive GDP quarters’) to a quantitative metrics.
Such an approach would help prevent subjective uses of ‘climate
crisis’ while enhancing the scientific reliability of the concept; it
would also acknowledge regional variability and prioritise targeted
interventions over blanket terminology. By linking ‘crisis’ to measurable
benchmarks, policymakers gain clearer adaptation priorities.