Multi-dimensional modelling tools supporting decision-making for the beekeeping sector

Honey bee colonies are fundamental for the provision of goods and ecosystem services. Honey bees are highly influenced by environmental conditions and quality, beekeepers’ management practices, socio-economic conditions and policies adopted for cropping and land use. We propose a modelling framework aiming at assessing the bee health status and forecast colony outputs. Two modelling tools are here presented: (i) a Health Status Index (HSI) exploring the consequences of abiotic, biotic drivers and beekeeping actions on bee health; and (ii) predictive models for the estimation of honey production and the provision of pollination service considering abiotic, biotic drivers and HSI. The models proposed represent useful tools for science-based decision support for beekeepers, risk managers and policy-makers.