Hydrologic vulnerability to climate change of the Mandrone glacier (Adamello-Presanella group, Italian Alps)

In order to assess the annual mass balance of the Mandrone glacier in the Central Alps an energy-
balance model was applied, supported by snowpack, meteorological and glaciological observations,
together with satellite measurements of snow covered areas and albedo. The Physically based
Distributed Snow Land and Ice Model (PDSLIM), a distributed multi-layer model for temperate
glaciers, which was previously tested on both basin and point scales, was applied.
Verification was performed with a network of ablation stakes over two summer periods. Satellite
images processed within the Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) project were
used to estimate the ice albedo and to verify the position of the simulated transient snowline on
specific dates. The energy balance was estimated for the Mandrone and Presena glaciers in the
Central Italian Alps. Their modeled balances (-1439 and -1503 mm w.e. yr-1, respectively),
estimated over a fifteen year period, are in good agreement with those obtained with the
glaciological method for the Caresèr glacier, a WGMS (World Glacier Monitoring Service)
reference located in the nearby Ortles- Cevedale group.
Projections according to the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (standing for COnsortium for
Small-scale MOdeling model in CLimate Mode) indicate that the Mandrone glacier might not
survive the current century and might be halved in size by 2050.