Modelling Framework to Evaluate the Phenological Development of Vine and Potential Impact of Frost: The Case of Prosecco DOC

The goal of this study is to develop a statistical modelling framework to investigate the potential impact of climate change on grapevine phenology curves and evaluate the impact of potential frosts on grape production. It is expected to develop a regression model to predict the phenological stage of the vine based on meteorological conditions and vineyard characteristics (e.g., orography and exposure). The second component of the framework is an impact model that investigates the potential impacts of frost based on the intensity of the frost and the phenological stage of the plant. The model will be calibrated using historical data on budburst and production from three production entities of the ‘Consorzio Prosecco DOC’ in Italy. The modelling framework addresses the need to support wine operators in dealing with the effects of climate change on production. Since frost climatic conditions and vine phenology are linked to seasonal temperature development, they are subject to long-term climate changes. Therefore, in the future, the risk of frost damage will depend not only on changes in the frequency and occurrence of frost days but also on modifications to vine phenology.