The impact of optimal climate change control on rice production in critical regions: the case of Southeast Asia

This study presents a novel data-driven approach designed to address the intricate link between climate change and agriculture, focusing on rice farming in Southeast Asia. By using advanced modelling and optimization tools, namely ARX models and Model Predictive Control, it aims to control the temperature anomaly across fifteen world's subregions. Using ARX models to downscale the global temperature anomaly, the approach allows the evaluation of local climate effects. The methodology is applied to evaluate the impact of climate change on rice production in Southeast Asia, projecting potential outcomes under different emission scenarios. By optimizing greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide and methane, the goal is to keep the temperature anomaly below critical thresholds, ensuring resilient rice production, supporting food security, and minimizing economic and social costs.